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Editor: Rod Sullivan
Profession: Maritime Attorney

Category: General

Meredith Viera pronounced on the Today Show this morning that "It's looking pretty good" for the Democrats to take control of the House of Representatives. She may be pretty, but she's no demographer, and no political analyst either.

In an earlier time, I taught a seminar to political candidates which I named "PIGS: Precinct Investigation, Grouping and Selection." The seminar taught that voters fall into one of three categories: Saints, Sinners, and Savables. The premise was that an congressional district can only be won if you can put together enough Savables, with the Saints, to have 50% of the vote, plus 1.

Currently, in the House of Representatives, there are 232 Republicans (including the Resident Commissioner), 203 Democrats (including one Independent who is aligned with the Democrats). That is a difference of 29 votes. The Democrats need a swing of 15 districts to take control of the House.

In summary, DEMOGRAPHICS IS DESTINY in congressional district races. Here is my analysis of the demographics of the 2006 Congressional Elections:

MY PREDICTION----DEMOCRATS HAVE A NET GAIN OF 10 SEATS, NOT ENOUGH TO TAKE CONTROL OF THE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES

ARIZONA

Arizona's 8th District:

The 8th District includes eastern Tucson, all of rural Cochise County and two major military bases.
Currently: Republican
Open Seat after Congressman Jim Kolbe, R decided not to run for reelection.
Republicans control of both chambers of the Legislature (Senate 18-12, House 39-21)

Analysis: Republican district being taken over by a Dem. Graf campaign reeling from charges scandal.

Sullivan's Prediction: Open seat. Gabrielle Giffords, D, defeats Randy Graf, R.

You can take as a given that Harvard educated Fulbright Scholar Sen. Gabrielle Giffords (D) is prettier and more heavily degreed than her Republican opponent, Randy Graf. Setting that aside, this is a district which is demographically Republican. It supported Gerald Ford over Jimmy Carter in 1980. Reagan over Carter 50%-34%in 1984. Bush over Dukakis 55% to 44% in 1988. Bush + Perot over Clinton 57% to 42% in 1992. So what's happening?

Graf has been backpedaling from allegations of racism, rumors that he was endorsed by the KKK, allegations that a campaign leader sexually abused two young girls etc. Whether true or not, the rumors have crippled his campaign.

Give Gifford 4-5% for being more approachable than Graf, and another 2-4% for being a woman and a few more points for being free from scandal, and this Republican district will go Democrat this year. Sometimes a more attractive candidate can overcome demographics. This is one of those rare districts where it will happen.

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COLORADO

Colorado's 7th District:
Currently Republican
Open Seat

Sullivan's Prediction: Open seat. Perlmutter, D defeats O'Donnell, R. Seat switches R to D

This is no surprise. This is an historically Democrat seat which was won by Bob Beauprez in 2002 by a mere 121 votes. This district supported Dukakis over Bush, 51%-49% in 1988. Clinton over Bush + Perot 45%-44% in 1992. Demographically it is a Democratic district.

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CONNECTICUT

Connecticut's 4th District:

Currently Republican
Incumbent Congressman Chris Shays

Sullivan's Prediction: Incumbent, Shays, R, defeats challenger Diane Farrell, D. Seat stays R

Tying Shays to Bush isn't enough, nor is being pretty and blond.
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Connecticut's 5th District:

Currently Republican
Congresswoman Nancy Johnson

Sullivan's Prediction: Incumbent Nancy Johnson, R, defeats challenger Chris Murphy, D. Seat stays R

Relying on news clippings from NYT and WP isn't enough to give this fresh face (Murphy) a fighting chance.
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Connecticut's 2nd District:

Currently Republican
Incumbent Congressman Rob Simmons

Sullivan's Prediction: Incumbent Simmons, R, defeats challenger Courtney, D. Seat stays R.

Sullivan's Prediction:

Truly a swing district, which supported Bush over Dukakis, 51% to 49% in 1988. Bush-Perot over Clinton, 56% to 43% in 1992. But it also supported Kerry over Bush by 10% in 2004.

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FLORIDA

Florida's 16th District:

Currently Republican
Open Seat upon resignation of Congressman Mark Foley

Sullivan's Prediction: Open Seat. Negron (standing in for Foley), R defeats Mahoney, D. Seat stays R

Mahoney's campaign is lackluster. Negron is starting so late, it will be tough to get traction. Foley's name on the ballot stinks up the race. A close call, but on balance, these voters are going to will stick with R.
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Florida's 22nd District:

Currently Republican
Incumbent Congressman Clay Shaw

Sullivan's Prediction: Incumbent Clay Shaw, R defeats challenger, Klein, D. Seat stays R

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Georgia's 8th District:

Currently Democrat
Incumbent Congressman Jim Marshall, D

Sullivan's Prediction: Incumbent Marshall, defeats challenger Collins, R. Seat stays D.

Marshall is a Democrat who is a proven vote-getter from Republicans. They like him and they'll cross over for him.
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ILLINOIS

Illinois's 6th District:

Currently Republican
Open Seat

Sullivan's Prediction: Open seat. Roskam, R defeats Iraq war veteran Duckworth, D. Seat stays R

Duckworth's status as a wounded Iraq veteran isn't enough to make her a congressman.
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INDIANA

Indiana's 8th District:

Currently Republican
Congressman John Hostettler, R

Sullivan's Prediction: Incumbent Hostettler is beaten by Ellsworth, D. Seat switches from R to D

Ellsworth runs to the right of Hostettler, taking away some Saints and garnering most Savables. Not only that, he's handsome, law enforcement, and likeable.
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Indiana's 2nd District:

Currently Republican
Incumbent Congressman Chris Chocola

Sullivan's Prediction: Incumbent Chocola, R is defeated by challenger Donnelly, D. Seat switches R to D.
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Indiana's 9th District:

Currently Republican
Congressman Mike Sodrel, R

Sullivan's Prediction: Sodrel, R, incumbent holds seat, but should lose the mustache.
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IOWA

Currently Republican
Open Seat

Iowa's 1st District:

Sullivan's Prediction: Whalen, R, defeats trial lawyer Braley, seat stays R
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KENTUCKY

Kentucky's 4th District:

Currently Republican
Incumbent Congressman Geoff Davis

Sullivan's Prediction: Davis, incumbent, R wins. Seat stays R
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NEW MEXICO

New Mexico's 1st District:

Currently Republican
Congresswoman Heather Wilson, R

Sullivan's Prediction: Open seat. Wilson, R, defeats Madrid, D. Seat stays R
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New York's 24th District:

Currently Republican
Open Seat

Sullivan's Prediction: Open seat, R. Meier, R defeats Arcuri, D. Seat stays R
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NORTH CAROLINA

North Carolina's 11th District:

Currently Republican
Incumbent Congressman Charles Taylor, R

Sullivan's Prediction: Incumbent R Taylor beats NFL quarterback Shuler, D. Seat stays R.
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OHIO

Ohio's 15th District:

Currently Republican
Congresswoman Pryce

Sullivan's Prediction: Incumbent, R Pryce beats Kilroy, D. Seat stays R
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Ohio's 18th District:

Currently Republican
Open Seat after Congressman Bob Ney resigned and went to prison for taking bribes

Sullivan's Prediction: Ney scandal turns seat from R to D, Space, D defeats Joy Padgett, R. But will female vote affect outcome?
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Ohio's 1st District:

Currently Republican
Incumbent Congressman Steve Chabot

Sullivan's Prediction: Incumbent Chabot, R defeats Cranley, D. Seat stays R
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PENNSYLVANIA

Pennsylvania's 6th District:

Currently Republican
Incumbent Congressman Jim Gerlach, R

Sullivan's Prediction: Incumbent Gerlach, R defeats challenger Murphy, D. Seat stays R
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Pennsylvania's 10th District:

Currently Republican
Incumbent Congressman Don Sherwood

Sullivan's Prediction: Incumbent Sherwood loses to challenger Carney, D. Seat switches from R to D
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Pennsylvania's 8th District:

Currently Republican
Incumbent Congressman Mike Fitzpatrick, R

Sullivan's Prediction: Incumbent Fitzpatrick, R defeats challenger Murphy, D. Seat stays R

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Pennsylvania's 7th District:

Currently Republican
Incumbent Congressman Curt Weldon, R

Sullivan's Prediction: Weldon, incumbent, R defeats challenger, Admiral Sestak, D. Seat stays R
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TEXAS

Texas's 22nd District:

Currently Republican
Open Seat

Sullivan's Prediction: Open seat, formerly R. Sekula-Gibbs defeats former congressman Lampson, D. Seat stays R
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VERMONT

Vermont's At-Large District:

Currently Democrat
Open Seat

Sullivan's Prediction: Open seat, formerly D. Peter Welch, D defeats Rainville, R. Seat stays D