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Editor: Rod Sullivan
Profession: Maritime Attorney

Category: General

In the New York Times on Sunday, November 5, it listed a number of seats as being in play which most pundits had not considered. Since I didn't consider these when I first targeted 25 districts which the Washington Post considered to be in play, I thought I'd update my predictions:

NEW PREDICTION: DEMOCRATS PICK UP A NET OF 12 SEATS. REPUBLICANS HOLD THE HOUSE.

ARIZONA

Arizona's 5th District:

The NYT says that this seat is in play. I disagree. J.D. Hayworth has been in congress 12 years. He's been through one redistricting by a Republican legislature. While the state was not heavily gerrymandered, making his seat more likely to be "in play" in 1988 the corresponding area went 68% for Bush over Dukakis, who only got 32% of the vote. In 1992 Bush + Perot got 68% of the vote to Clinton's 31%.

Prediction: Hayworth is safe. Seat stays R.

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California

California's 11th District

California was so heavily gerrymandered in the 2002 redistricting that it's inconceivable that anyone would think that a congressional seat was in play---but the NYT thinks so. Nevertheless, this area went 59% for Bush + Perot in 1992 and 56% for Bush in 1988.

Prediction: Congressman Pombo, incumbent R, is safe.

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Connecticut

Connecticuts 4th District

Okay, I agree. Eastern Connecticut is up for grabs. Christopher Shays has beaten Dianne Farrell once, but only by 4.9%.

Prediction: Connecticut voters are hot for change. I'll put this one in the D column.
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Florida

Florida's 13th District

The NYT says that this Sarasota centered seat, formerly held by Katherine Harris is too close to call? That is a pipe dream, in my opinion.

Prediction: Seat stays R.

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Illinois

Illinois 6th District

Prediction: I've already predicted that Roskam will win the seat. I'll stick with that prediction. Duckworth lacks sufficient substance as a candidate. Being a veteran is admirable. Being a wounded veteran is even more so. But when it comes to brass tacks, Roskam has the "G" word---gravitas, and Duckworth doesn't.

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Kansas

Kansas Second District

Ryun, a five term incumbent, beat his challenger, Boyda, last election by 14.9%. The NYT now says that this seat is in play. They need to re-think their polls. The district went 63% for Bush + Perot in 1992 over a mere 38% for Clinton. It went 54% for Bush over Dukakis in 1988. It ain't changin this year.

Prediction: Seat stays R.
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Kentucky

Kentucky 4th District

These northern Kentucky voters went for father Bush 60% over Dukakis with a mere 40%. They voted in Ryun 14.9% over his opponenent two years ago.

Prediction: This seat stays R.

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New Mexico

New Mexico 1st District

While the 1st district isn't as solidly R as it once was, incumbent Heather Wilson won by a comfortable 8.9% in her last election.

Predition: This one stays in the R column.

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New York

New York 26th District

Okay, I'll grant that this is a swing district which could go for a D. However, Reynolds is a strong incumbent, his opponent is a weak D, who hasn't attracted much outside financing. It could have been in play, but its not.

Prediction: Seat stays R.

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Wyoming

Wyoming At Large District

Anything can happen in an at-large district because demographics can't be tampered with by gerrymandering. However, Wyoming is a strong R state and a few gaffs by Barbara Cubin about a questioner in a wheelchair needing to be slapped doesn't put this seat in play, no matter what the NYT says.

Prediction: Seat stays R.